Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 021141
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
641 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE TODAY...PROMOTING GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SLOWLY
MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SHALLOW SCATTERED CUMULUS LAYER DEVELOPING IN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 6 TO 10 MPH
EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST UP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD IN THE SHORT TERM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE PLAINS SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST LATER IN
THE WEEKEND.  WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...A FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION AND STALLS OUT...BECOMING A FOCUS FOR STORMS AND PRECIP FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING ON UNTIL A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ERODING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS AT
LEAST TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.  MODELS SHIFT GEARS AGAIN ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF MIDWEEK, GOING TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE AROUND THE SWRN
LOW AND INTO THE MIDWEST.  A RATHER WET FORECAST OVERALL, WITH
SEVERAL DIFFERENT PATTERNS ESTABLISHING THEMSELVES...AND KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OUTLOOK.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES OVERALL AND GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING WARMER.
ECMWF 850MB TEMPS STAYING IN THE 11-13C THROUGH MIDWEEK...EVEN
WARMER TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...BUT THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE COUNTERED BY PRECIP IN THE MORE ACTIVE SWRLY PATTERN.  OVERALL,
CONCERN IN THE FORECAST CENTERS ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
STALLING OUT AND THE SUBSEQUENT FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION/TRAINING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...BUT PROLONGED RAINFALL MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED A BIT FOR MON AND TUES, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PRIMARILY VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 KTS DEVELOPING BY AROUND 15Z.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE KSPI-KBMI WESTWARD AFTER 03Z HOWEVER
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ASIDE FROM STRONGER STORMS.
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN 12Z TAFS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON



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