Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 252028
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE CONTINUING IFR AND SCATTERED
LIFR CIGS AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE ILX TERMINALS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS A BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE...BUT ANY BREAKS WILL
BE BRIEF WITH THE LOW IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FIRMLY BACK IN THE COLD AIR. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER STILL
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 00Z. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TOMORROW MORNING
FORECAST ANTICIPATED TO BE MILD...CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOR
POTENTIAL REDUCTION OF VIS WITH THE INCREASED RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BUT AS IS, THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO COUNTER.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS


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