Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 271553
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER



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