Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 161755
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EAST MOVING
OUT AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION. LINGERING FOG/MIST AND
STRATUS HANGING AROUND A BIT THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY ERODE. WHEREAS VIS IS IMPROVING...CEILINGS ARE SLOWER TO
RESPOND. CONCERNED THE EAST WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING ITS
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE MORE QUICKLY.
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DO SHOW BETTER CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE IN THE WEST WITH THE LOWER CU RULE VALUES AS WELL. NO
MAJOR UPDATES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH TRENDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. MAY SEE AN UPDATE
MIDDAY IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER TROFFING WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH
RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE. THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROFFING WILL ALSO
BRING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES TO AN END FOR NOW. THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE VORTICITY CENTER WITH THE TROF IS
CURRENTLY OVER OUR FAR EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHOWERS FALLING OVER CHAMPAIGN, VERMILION, AND EDGAR
COUNTIES. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING, THEY SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY, BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF PULLS AWAY AND THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY, MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. ONE THING THAT WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY
IS THE WINDS, WHICH WILL THANKFULLY BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS SEEN WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU
APR 16 2015

CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHIFT EAST OF IL BY SUNSET WITH WEATHER SYSTEM
EXITING AND CLOUDS DECREASING OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EASTERN IL THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S WITH MILDEST READINGS SOUTHERN AREAS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS IL/IN FRIDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO IL. THIS TO BRING MILDER HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL NEAR IL. RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MOST MODELS KEEP QPF SW OF CENTRAL IL SATURDAY THROUGH GFS DOES
BRING SOME QPF INTO SW HALF OF CWA SAT AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY SAT MORNING WITH 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM GALESBURG TO LINCOLN TO ROBINSON SW SAT
AFTERNOON.

A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
LATE THIS WEEK EJECTS ENERGY NE TOWARD IL SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MORE CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY KEEPS COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
IL. MODELS THEN SHIFT QPF NE OF CENTRAL IL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN BY 18Z/MON.
COOLER HIGHS MONDAY OF 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS NEAR
LAWRENCEVILLE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUE. GFS SPREADS QPF INTO IL WED WHILE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPS IT DRY. SIDED WITH CONSENSUS WITH 20-30% CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WED-THU WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. STILL INFLUENCED BY
UPPER LEVEL TROF WED WITH COOL HIGHS IN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S,
MILDEST READINGS IN SOUTHEAST IL SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TAFS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY A FUNCTION OF CLEARING STRATUS AND
THE MORNING FOG. CLOUD COVER LARGELY BEING REPLACED WITH SOME
CIRRUS AND A BIT OF CU DEVELOPMENT WITH THE AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE
UNDER THE CLEARING IN THE WEST. EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE AND
SPREAD EASTWARD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE LARGE GAP IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS. OVERNIGHT...TIME HEIGHTS PICKING UP ON CIRRUS AND
NOT TOO MUCH ELSE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TOMORROW
MORNING CONCERN FOR SOME REDUCTION OF VIS WITH MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE WITH MINIMAL MIXING IN LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER RH THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BIGGER CAT DROP EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS
WITH THE STUBBORN STRATUS STILL DELAYING ANY DRYING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR POTENTIAL PRETTY GOOD AFTER 07-08Z...AND BRIEFLY
TO IFR.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS



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