Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 020832
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
332 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE TODAY...PROMOTING GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SLOWLY
MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SHALLOW SCATTERED CUMULUS LAYER DEVELOPING IN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 6 TO 10 MPH
EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST UP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD IN THE SHORT TERM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE PLAINS SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST LATER IN
THE WEEKEND.  WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...A FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION AND STALLS OUT...BECOMING A FOCUS FOR STORMS AND PRECIP FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING ON UNTIL A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ERODING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS AT
LEAST TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.  MODELS SHIFT GEARS AGAIN ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF MIDWEEK, GOING TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE AROUND THE SWRN
LOW AND INTO THE MIDWEST.  A RATHER WET FORECAST OVERALL, WITH
SEVERAL DIFFERENT PATTERNS ESTABLISHING THEMSELVES...AND KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OUTLOOK.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES OVERALL AND GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING WARMER.
ECMWF 850MB TEMPS STAYING IN THE 11-13C THROUGH MIDWEEK...EVEN
WARMER TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...BUT THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE COUNTERED BY PRECIP IN THE MORE ACTIVE SWRLY PATTERN.  OVERALL,
CONCERN IN THE FORECAST CENTERS ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
STALLING OUT AND THE SUBSEQUENT FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION/TRAINING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...BUT PROLONGED RAINFALL MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED A BIT FOR MON AND TUES, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
VALID TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
SATURDAY ON THE HIGH`S BACK SIDE. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA, BUT SKIES SHOULD BE MORE
CLEAR THAN NOT BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK



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