Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KILX 010743
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
243 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
CENTRAL IL TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS FROM
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND THE AREA. GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY...GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MUCH OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE DRY. FIRST
UPPER WAVE DRIES OUT WHILE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THE MODELS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY WILL BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AS THE NEXT
WAVE EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POP`S SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HINT AT SOME SHOWER REMNANTS CROSSING THE RIVER LATE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WARM NICELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH MID 70S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AND LIKELY SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS WEST OF I-55 SUNDAY.

FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE WET IN AT
LEAST PART OF THE MIDWEST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS WHILE
PARALLELING THE UPPER FLOW. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
I-72 MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT MAY INFLUENCE WHERE THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT HIGHS A BIT COOLER ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MID 70S...WHILE 80 DEGREES
IS MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE INTO MID WEEK. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD GET A
GOOD NORTHWARD PUSH BY MID WEEK, AND LIMITED ANY POP`S TO SILENT
20S TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY
SHOULD EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. SOME
DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS ON HOW THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE EVOLVES...BUT BOTH AGREE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MINIMAL AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.