Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 230143
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
843 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A COOL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS SETTLING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING DEW POINTS
WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MID TEEN DEW POINTS
OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE AREA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY ALLOWING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING BY MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WHERE THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CLOSEST TO BY 12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FREEZE AND
FROST HEADLINES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. THE ZFP UPDATE
SHOULD BE OUT BY 900 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS WITH THE
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...BUT THIS WILL BE FADING
TOWARD SUNSET AS WILL THE WINDS. THUS...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT,
WITH MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-72 SEEING LOWS 30-32 DEGREES AND 32-
35 FURTHER SOUTH. AS THE GROWING SEASON IS FAR ENOUGH ALONG IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WE WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FROM ABOUT
RUSHVILLE-LINCOLN-PARIS NORTHWARD...AND A FROST ADVISORY TO THE
SOUTH. FROST POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...AS DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW-MID 20S MAY MITIGATE SOME OF THE FROST THREAT...BUT HAVE
ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER NW WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THU AS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SETTLES OVER IL BY
SUNSET THU. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY OVER EASTERN IL OVERNIGHT
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN FRIDAY. RETURN SE
FLOW AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP WESTERN AREAS MILDER FOR
LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F. BUT LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOWS OVER
EASTERN IL WITH AREAS OF FROST AGAIN DEVELOPING.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MOST MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND SW AREAS AND CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THEN. STILL THINK MOST OF AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. MODELS EJECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM SE CO AND OK
PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHERN IL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
INCREASING INSENTROPIC LIFT DURING FRIDAY NIGHT TO INCREASE CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW
AREAS. CENTRAL IL ON NORTH SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SO COOLED
HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AREAS SAT WHILE MILDER LOWS
60S IN FAR SOUTHEAST IL BY HIGHWAY 50. RAIN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF IL WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO 1 INCH.

DRY WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH MILDER HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNSET SUNDAY.

A BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATRURES OVERALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MONTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER WITH NEXT CUTOFF LOW IN SW STATES DURING 1ST HALF OF NEXT
WORK WEEK SO THINKING CENTRAL IL TO STAY DRY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARRIVING TUE/WED. GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE IS CUTOFF SO ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF THEY OCCUR WILL BE
LIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF SETTING UP OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND AVERAGE
FROM 6 TO 10 KTS AFTER 02Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17 KTS BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ049>052-054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>048-053-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SMITH



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