Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 301147
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
647 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z/7AM
TODAY THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING. A
COLD POOL OF AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW, HELPING CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
IN ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS THIS MORNING DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
EAST OF I-57, WHERE BETTER LIFT WILL BE PRESENT CLOSER TO THE CENTER
OF THE LOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PEAK TOWARD 18Z WHEN THE CENTER OF
THE LOW REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT TO EASTERN IL. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY, WITH JUST ISOLATED EASTERN LOCATIONS SEEING ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN UP TO 0.01".

CLOUDS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS WEST OF I-55 TODAY, HELPING HIGH TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S WEST OF SPRINGFIELD TO GALESBURG. COOLER AIR
AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER CLOSER TO THE
UPPER 50S AND AROUND 60.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS TAPPING INTO 20-25KT LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS, SO GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

BEAUTIFUL DAY ON TAP FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS REACHING AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXPECTED
TO REACH MINNESOTA/IOWA DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOSING ITS PUNCH WEST
OF US. THUS...HAVE KEPT SATURDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AS MOISTURE LEVELS START TO INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE PLEASANT.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE EARLY WEEK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH...AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT AS FAR
SOUTH AS ABOUT I-72 TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTH...AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO ITS NORTH. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POP`S FURTHER SOUTH AND WENT COMPLETELY DRY AT TIMES
SOUTH OF I-70. AREAS REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES EACH DAY...BUT HAVE KEPT HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY WHERE RAIN AND THE
BOUNDARY ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES, AND THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA TODAY. A COLD POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES, WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CLOUDS TO RE-
DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE EASTERN TAFS OF CMI AND DEC
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING BKN CIGS AROUND 5-6K FEET,
WHILE CLOUDS REMAIN SCT FOR PIA/BMI/SPI.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DAYTIME MIXING WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO 20-23KT AT TIMES FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET WITH WIND SPEEDS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
02Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON


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