Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 270805
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH


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