Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 170831
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED AROUND 2 AM FOR EASTERN IL WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CDT. THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE DENSE
FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF I-
57 AND COULD EXPAND FURTHER WEST OF I-57 WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG AS FAR WEST AS I-55 PER HRRR MODEL UNTIL 9 AM. ONCE
THE FOG LIFTS LATER THIS MORNING A NICE MILD SPRING DAY IS SHAPING
UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER IN
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO IL GIVING  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING MID/LATE SAT AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SW OF A GALESBURG TO LINCOLN TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND IL YET ON SATURDAY TO BRING A
NOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY, WITH
MILDEST READINGS NEAR THE IN BORDER WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY GETS
ABSORBED BY NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF ND/MN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM OK PANHANDLE TO NEAR CENTRAL IL BY
SUNSET SUNDAY AND SWEEPS A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH IL SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS TO LIKELY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF I-74
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHT RISK SW OF A
PITTSFIELD TO EFFINGHAM TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS SUNDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-74.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN DOMINATES THE MIDWEST MONDAY-THURSDAY
AS STRONG CUTOFF LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER IN AND
NORTHERN IL. COOLER HIGHS OF 60-65F MONDAY WITH MILDEST READINGS BY
LAWRENCEVILLE. HAVE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. THEN SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS WED/THU WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WITH GFS MODEL TRENDING MUCH WETTER DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHILE ECMWF MODEL IS KEEPING IL DRY. COOL HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUE-WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S, WITH COOLEST READINGS FROM I-74 NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR IN FOG FROM AROUND KCMI-K1H2
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH VFR TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
FOG WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO AROUND KBMI-KSPI EASTWARD WHERE
GREATEST AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LACK OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE 13Z-15Z WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. LIGHT SSE WINDS 5-8 KTS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAYTIME PERIOD...CONTINUING INTO EVENING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ044>046-
054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON



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