Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 221514
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1014 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

INCREASED WINDS A BIT FOR TODAY...AS GUSTS ALREADY REACHING 25-30
MPH IN MANY AREAS. AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF I-74 WILL BE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE BEEN SEEING
SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AS FAR SOUTH AS
I-72 AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR
THIS TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES STILL PREVAILING. NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A BIT...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE DIURNAL
RISES LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER, WHILE A POST-FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING
STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE NOW LOCATED
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO INDIANA AND DIMINISHING BY 12Z, SO HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY.  A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND A HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND
700MB, RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30MPH REACHING THE SURFACE.
DESPITE MODEST CAA, AMPLE MID-APRIL SUN WORKING ON A DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES: HOWEVER, WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THINK A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE OF AROUND 5MPH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
FROST FORMATION DESPITE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.  WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR NOW,
BUT WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, PROVIDING A SUNNY AND COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60.  ANOTHER COLD AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY NIGHT IS
SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO INDIANA BY 12Z FRI.  WILL AGAIN INCLUDE FROST MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN KILX CWA, WHERE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.

END OF WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM HAS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS, WITH THE 00Z
APR 22 MODELS NOW IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.  UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  GFS/ECMWF
BOTH KEEP CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, AS LOW
REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST AND INITIALLY VERY DRY AIRMASS KEEPS PRECIP
AT BAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
MEANDERS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ANOTHER COOL/DRY
DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.  AFTER THAT, MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, THEN BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS IS TAKING THIS SYSTEM DIRECTLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS,
RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUDS/RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  MEANWHILE, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, KEEPING THE PRECIP SOUTH OF
ILLINOIS.  DUE TO THE POOR MODEL AGREEMENT, HAVE OPTED TO MAKE VERY
FEW CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY.  WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY, THEN WILL BRING
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE PICTURE FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO START, BUT AN AREA OF CLOUDS AROUND 4KFT IS
MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. CLOUD COVER IS ROUGH AROUND THE
EDGES AND HAS HOLES. SO BELIEVE SUN WILL PROBABLY BURN SOME OFF AS
IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SITES. SO WILL HAVE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ARRIVING IN 2-3 HOURS AT ALL SITES. HOWEVER, WILL HAVE
TEMPO BROKEN CIGS AT PIA/BMI/CMI AS THESE THREE SITES SHOULD BE
MORE IN THE THICK OF THE CLOUDS FOR A WHILE TODAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR JUST AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AND BE GUSTY, BUT
NOT LIKE YESTERDAY. WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 27KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...AUTEN


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