Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 060838
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

Next shortwave to begin lifting northward through western Missouri
today, with ongoing showers and thunderstorms over eastern Kansas
spreading north and east towards central and northeast Missouri this
morning. With upper ridge holding firm just to our east,
precipitation will have a tough time making any progress further
east before diminishing late this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be
another warm day with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

By Thursday, with main shortwave still deepening and digging over
the west coast, another series of shortwaves to slide through region
with showers and thunderstorms developing and spreading east across
the forecast area. The best chances of precipitation will be over
central and northeast Missouri and west central Illinois once again
through Thursday night.

Then on Friday, upper low over southwestern US to begin to lift out
towards forecast area. This will help nudge the frontal boundary
south, but it will stall out along I-70 corridor for the weekend. So
will see a wet period for the region with several rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. Models are indicating storms that
develop Friday over western Missouri will congeal together into a
complex and slide east along boundary Friday night/Saturday morning.

Beyond that, extended models have some differences in placement and
timing of system as it finally slides through region on Monday, so
confidence is low in any one solution. For now no major changes with
system exiting Monday night with dry and cooler weather for next
Tuesday when highs will be near normal or just a bit below normal in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

The high based, diurnal cumulus clouds along with the widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms have dissipated late this
evening due to the loss of daytime heating. There will be a
little mid-high level cloudiness for the remainder of the night
into Wednesday morning. At least scattered cumulus clouds will
develop again late Wednesday morning and afternoon with the best
chance of showers/storms for the COU area. Weak sely surface
winds will continue late tonight with an increasing sly surface
wind Wednesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: The diurnal convective activity along with
the high based cumulus clouds have dissipated late this evening.
Just a little mid-high level cloudiness is expected for the
remainder of the night into Wednesday morning. Diurnal cumulus
clouds will develop again for late Wednesday morning and
afternoon, but it appears that most of the showers/storms will
remain west of STL. A weak sely surface wind will continue late
tonight with a strengthening sly wind for Wednesday morning into
the afternoon. The diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate again
Wednesday evening along with a weakening surface wind.

GKS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




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