Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 060425
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1125 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 910 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Going fcst looks on track so just touched up the grids to account
for the current trends. Shower activity continues to dsspt but has
lingered a bit longer than originally anticipated with just a few
lingering echoes SE of the STL metro area. Remnant cloud cover
from earlier convection will drift north thru the evng as it
continues to dsspt.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Isolated to scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA should start to dissipate
early tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. Overnight lows in
the 60s across the CWA will be fairly similar to last night. Winds
will start to back and become more southerly overnight in response
to a low pressure system which will be lifting from NM into the
central plains.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Southwest flow aloft can be expected with southerly surface flow
thru the upcoming weekend.  This nearly always alludes to above
average temps and pcpn chances and it appears it will be no
different this time around.

Thanks to hi-height SW flow initially, upper level disturbances will
deliver glancing blows to our region from the west and north
Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in decent rain chances for a
UIN-COU axis but minimal chances (climo [30%] or below) elsewhere.

The heights start to edge downward and enable the train of upper
level disturbances to start affecting more and more real estate over
our region by Friday and into the weekend, and this will represent
our best chances for widespread rain, where all areas will have
above climo PoPs with many in likely category.  This is not a huge
change by any stretch from the previous forecast, however.

The main upper level LOW that had been spinning over the
southwestern CONUS for much of this week is anticipated to bust
loose into the Plains by early next week and affect our region on
Monday, giving us one more day of potentially wet wx.

Finally by Tuesday a pattern change is in the works with NW flow
aloft in the wake of that main storm system exiting the SW CONUS.

Max temps thru Thursday are expected to be in the 80s with min temps
in the 60s, with a gradual cooling trend from the west beginning
Friday, but most locales in STL metro and east should still break 80
thru the weekend until early in the work week.

A more definitive cooling trend is then expected to take hold on
Tuesday and continue for a few days beyond.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

The high based, diurnal cumulus clouds along with the widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms have dissipated late this
evening due to the loss of daytime heating. There will be a
little mid-high level cloudiness for the remainder of the night
into Wednesday morning. At least scattered cumulus clouds will
develop again late Wednesday morning and afternoon with the best
chance of showers/storms for the COU area. Weak sely surface
winds will continue late tonight with an increasing sly surface
wind Wednesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: The diurnal convective activity along with
the high based cumulus clouds have dissipated late this evening.
Just a little mid-high level cloudiness is expected for the
remainder of the night into Wednesday morning. Diurnal cumulus
clouds will develop again for late Wednesday morning and
afternoon, but it appears that most of the showers/storms will
remain west of STL. A weak sely surface wind will continue late
tonight with a strengthening sly wind for Wednesday morning into
the afternoon. The diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate again
Wednesday evening along with a weakening surface wind.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  86  66  87 /  10  10   5  30
Quincy          63  83  64  83 /  10  30  20  60
Columbia        62  81  63  82 /  10  50  10  60
Jefferson City  62  82  63  82 /  10  40  10  60
Salem           62  84  61  85 /  20   5   5  10
Farmington      60  81  61  83 /  20   5   5  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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