Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 301149
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

Tranquil weather expected thru tonight. Upper low currently over
Great Lakes region is expected to remain E of the area. The s/w
currently supporting light RA/sprinkles will rotate thru this
morning leaving today dry.

With little in the way of clouds expected today, have trended aoa
the warmest guidance again today. Mdls prog sfc ridge settling over
the area tonight. With clouds clearing out of the area and winds
becoming light, temps shud drop quickly. Have continued cool trend
going aob coolest guidance.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

Not many changes from the prev forecast. Mdls continue to slow the
retreating sfc ridge on Fri into Sat. With upper pattern becoming
more zonal, focus for precip chances diminishes as any s/w
approaching the region may be capable of generating enuf support for
precip. Have continued low PoPs for Fri night thru Sat with some
upper air support and a broad LLJ across nrn portions of the CWA.
Pulled PoPs nwd thru this time period as well with better forcing
across nrn portions of the CWA.

Chances increase somewhat early next week as a sfc fnt approaches
the region, but shud remain in IA as upper level ridge builds into
the area. This shud help keep precip N of the CWA, but can not rule
out TSRA reaching the area. RA chances increase thru next week with
the best chances sometime on Wed for now. While mdls are in fairly
good agreement supporting some sort of activity moving into the wrn
portions of the CWA on Wed, given the nature of the upper level
pattern, expect this system to slow progression with future cycles.

As for temps, have continued warm trend thru the period. Given the
height rises progd this weekend thru much of next week, going
forecast may not be warm enuf.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

Cool, dry spring day on tap with VFR conditions at all TAF sites.
Northerly winds will pick up to between 10 and 15 knots today with
gusts around 20 knots. A partly to mostly sunny sky is anticipated
today with few-sct diurnal cu. A mostly clear sky with winds
becoming very light tonight is expected.


Specifics for KSTL:

Cool, dry spring day on tap with VFR conditions at Lambert Field.
Northerly winds will pick up to between 10 and 15 knots today with
gusts around 20 knots. A partly to mostly sunny sky is anticipated
today with sct diurnal cu. For tonight and into early
Friday...clear skies and very light northeast winds are forecast.


Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     72  43  72  53 /   5   0   0  10
Quincy          68  41  70  52 /   5   0  10  20
Columbia        73  43  72  51 /   0   0   0  10
Jefferson City  73  42  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
Salem           66  41  69  49 /  10   0   0   5
Farmington      70  39  69  46 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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