Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 022041
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
341 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

Low-mid level warm air advection ahead of weak shortwaves will bring
mid-high level cloudiness to the forecast area tonight.  Most of the
showers should be across northeast MO and west central IL where
better low level moisture along with instability exists, although
there may be a few sprinkles further south.  Low temperatures will
be warmer than the previous night, and at least slightly above
normal for early May, due to the cloud cover and southerly surface
winds.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

An upper level RIDGE will begin building over our region early next
week with it effectively in control after Monday and continuing thru
the work week.  This will result in an extended period of above
average temps with above average moisture thru the column--where
disturbances or areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms.  As a result, we were hard
pressed to find any days next week with PoPs too low to mention.

Some sprinkles were possible for areas mainly N and W of STL metro
Sunday morning in a moist column, very weak forcing regime, but
otherwise PoPs look to be too low for measurable pcpn at this time.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Sunday night thru
Monday night as it drops into far northern MO Sunday night and
stalls during this period.  While at least high-end chance PoPs look
justified for areas near the front, they should taper off rapidly
heading towards I-70 with an absence otherwise of any forcing.

With a more traditional warm-sector setup for late Monday night thru
late Wednesday, this period looks warm but dry.

Finally, a more persistent period of forcing from upper level
disturbances and eventually a surface front will join with enhanced
levels of moisture for what should be the best widespread chances
for rain over the next seven days...from Thursday thru Saturday.

Persistent southerly flow and an ever-strengthening May sun angle
should help to propell temps over 80 just about each day during next
week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

Upper level disturbances will bring mid-high level cloudiness to
the taf sites this forecast period. Showers may move eastward
through UIN late this afternoon and tonight, with sprinkles
possible in COU. The showers should remain north and west of the
St Louis metro area. Sly winds will continue through the period
with the surface ridge centered over the TN Valley region.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness can be expected,
particularly tonight. It appears that the showers will remain
north and west of STL. Sly surface winds will continue through the
forecast period.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




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