Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 051727

1227 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Ongoing activity over far northern portions of forecast area to
continue diminishing this morning as front shifts a bit further
north, but with front so close could still see isolated activity.
Kept slight chance pops going for this area. Otherwise, majority
of region will be dry today though some isolated activity not out
of the question for areas along and south of I-70 where there is
no cap, decent CAPE and some weak surface moisture convergence. As
for high temps, low to mid 80s expected.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

By tonight, frontal boundary will be well north of forecast area,
with dry and mild conditions persisting overnight with lows in the
low 60s.

On Wednesday another round of activity to fire up on periphery of
surface ridge affecting central/northeast MO as well as west central
IL, before diminishing after sunset Wednesday night.

By Thursday, surface ridge shifts further to the east allowing
weather system to move closer to region. Plenty of low level
moisture to stream in with surface dewpts in the 60s and several
shortwaves slide through region as frontal boundary slowly sinks
south into forecast area. So will see several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the last part of the work week and into next
weekend. Some differences on timing and placement of system among
the extended models, so just kept with a blend of the solutions for
now. Highs will be in the 70s/80s through the period with lows in
the 60s.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Specifics for Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but
the expected coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs attm.
Diurnal cu should dissipate after sunset. Winds will subside
overnight then increase again tomorrow. Slightly stronger winds
aloft tomorrow combined with better mixing will produce stronger
wind gusts (20-25kts) after 06/15z.





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