Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 201932
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
232 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

The isolated showers/sprinkles should diminish by this evening as
shortwave exits region so do not have in grids. As for cloud cover
and winds, to diminish as well with skies clearing out and winds
becoming west to southwest around 10 kts. Colder temps tonight with
lows a bit below normal in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

Upper level trof/low over the center of the CONUS will continue
to deepen as it moves east toward New England this week. A pair of
shortwaves embedded in the resultant northwest flow overhead will
bring chances of showers to at least the southern CWA Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning.

A west-southwest surface wind on Tuesday will help temperatures warm
toward normal values for afternoon highs. Believe fuel moisture will
remain too high to have any true fire weather concerns despite the
warmer temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty wind expected
across the northern CWA. The second shortwave will be accompanied by
a cold front that will descend across the CWA Tuesday night. Below
normal temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night
and wouldn`t be surprised if we eventually have to mention some
frost for parts of the CWA Thursday morning with temperatures
dipping into the middle 30s.

The northwest flow aloft will relax by Friday as heights begin to
rise in response to the next approaching storm system with Pacific
origins. Temperatures moderate some with highs back into the 60s
on Thursday and Friday. Both the GFS and ECWMF depict a wet
beginning to next weekend as a low pressure system moves from the
Central Plains to the Southeast. Can`t rule out rain developing as
early as Friday, but all indications are that the heaviest rain
will fall Friday night into Saturday morning. Location will depend
on where the best moisture convergence sets up, but at this point
the models are suggesting the I-70 corridor has the potential to
see an inch of rain. The rain should come to an end from north to
south on Saturday afternoon as a surface ridge builds into the
Midwest behind the storm system.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

SC deck remaining VFR this afternoon, then should diminish and
clear out by early this evening. Otherwise, dealing with gusty
northwest winds across the region which will diminish by early
this evening as well, but remain sustained around 10kt from the
west overnight. Then will see winds mix down to surface on
Tuesday, but not quite as gusty as today with mid cloud deck
moving in.

Specifics for KSTL:
SC deck remaining VFR this afternoon, then should diminish and
clear out by 01z Tuesday. Otherwise, dealing with gusty
northwest winds across the region which will diminish by early
this evening as well, but remain sustained around 10kt from the
west overnight. Then will see winds mix down to surface by 15z Tuesday,
but not quite as gusty as today with mid cloud deck moving in.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     44  68  45  59 /   5  20  20  10
Quincy          39  64  40  58 /   5  10  20   5
Columbia        41  66  42  59 /   5  10  20  10
Jefferson City  41  67  43  60 /   5  20  30  10
Salem           42  66  43  59 /   5  20  30  10
Farmington      42  66  46  61 /  10  40  50  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




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