Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 061134
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
634 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

Next shortwave to begin lifting northward through western Missouri
today, with ongoing showers and thunderstorms over eastern Kansas
spreading north and east towards central and northeast Missouri this
morning. With upper ridge holding firm just to our east,
precipitation will have a tough time making any progress further
east before diminishing late this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be
another warm day with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

By Thursday, with main shortwave still deepening and digging over
the west coast, another series of shortwaves to slide through region
with showers and thunderstorms developing and spreading east across
the forecast area. The best chances of precipitation will be over
central and northeast Missouri and west central Illinois once again
through Thursday night.

Then on Friday, upper low over southwestern US to begin to lift out
towards forecast area. This will help nudge the frontal boundary
south, but it will stall out along I-70 corridor for the weekend. So
will see a wet period for the region with several rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. Models are indicating storms that
develop Friday over western Missouri will congeal together into a
complex and slide east along boundary Friday night/Saturday morning.

Beyond that, extended models have some differences in placement and
timing of system as it finally slides through region on Monday, so
confidence is low in any one solution. For now no major changes with
system exiting Monday night with dry and cooler weather for next
Tuesday when highs will be near normal or just a bit below normal in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

One or more bands of showers and possibly some thunderstorms is
expected to move/develop from western MO into central MO. This
should first impact KCOU around midday. I didn`t introduce any
vsby restriction due to uncertainty in the intensity, but it
certainly could lower the flight category to MVFR at times in the
afternoon. The residual showers in a weakened state may impact
KUIN around 21z but given the uncertainty in coverage just opted
for VCSH. Otherwise and elsewhere, flight conditions should be VFR
and gusty southerly winds are expected to develop by mid morning
and persist into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Current thinking is any precipitation threat will remain to the
west during the valid TAF period. Flight conditions should be VFR
and gusty southerly winds are expected to develop by mid morning
and persist into the afternoon.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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