Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 300822

322 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

Tranquil weather expected thru tonight. Upper low currently over
Great Lakes region is expected to remain E of the area. The s/w
currently supporting light RA/sprinkles will rotate thru this
morning leaving today dry.

With little in the way of clouds expected today, have trended aoa
the warmest guidance again today. Mdls prog sfc ridge settling over
the area tonight. With clouds clearing out of the area and winds
becoming light, temps shud drop quickly. Have continued cool trend
going aob coolest guidance.


.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

Not many changes from the prev forecast. Mdls continue to slow the
retreating sfc ridge on Fri into Sat. With upper pattern becoming
more zonal, focus for precip chances diminishes as any s/w
approaching the region may be capable of generating enuf support for
precip. Have continued low PoPs for Fri night thru Sat with some
upper air support and a broad LLJ across nrn portions of the CWA.
Pulled PoPs nwd thru this time period as well with better forcing
across nrn portions of the CWA.

Chances increase somewhat early next week as a sfc fnt approaches
the region, but shud remain in IA as upper level ridge builds into
the area. This shud help keep precip N of the CWA, but can not rule
out TSRA reaching the area. RA chances increase thru next week with
the best chances sometime on Wed for now. While mdls are in fairly
good agreement supporting some sort of activity moving into the wrn
portions of the CWA on Wed, given the nature of the upper level
pattern, expect this system to slow progression with future cycles.

As for temps, have continued warm trend thru the period. Given the
height rises progd this weekend thru much of next week, going
forecast may not be warm enuf.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

Main batch of mid clouds is now centered over IL, and with shortwave
energy rotating into base of Great Lakes pushing into IL overnight
most of this cloudiness should remain east of the Mississippi River.

Still appears we will see deep mixing tomorrow afternoon, which
should produce some high-based CU (aoa 5kft) along with north
winds that could gust to around 20kts from time to time. These
clouds and winds should diminish rapidly heading into Thursday evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Patchy mid clouds with bases aoa 10kft expected
overnight, with some diurnally driven, high-based CU (aoa 5kft)
developing by midday Thursday. Light northerly winds overnight
tonight should increase on Thursday morning with the onset of
daytime heating, with gusts up to 20kts possible during peak heating.



Saint Louis     72  43  72  53 /   5   0   0  10
Quincy          68  41  70  52 /   5   0  10  20
Columbia        73  43  72  51 /   0   0   0  10
Jefferson City  73  42  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
Salem           66  41  69  49 /  10   0   0   5
Farmington      70  39  69  46 /   5   0   0   5




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