Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KPAH 041818
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
118 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LOOKS TO REMAIN OF
LITTLE IMPACT TO THE FA THRU THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SATELLITE AND MODELING OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOW TWO
PIECES OF JET ENERGY THAT WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NORTHERN PIECE IN CANADA/GREAT LAKES AREA WILL SLICE
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST/AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE
OTHER PIECE IS OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S...WHERE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
COMMENCE UPON ITS LANDFALL/MOVEMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE
TELECONNECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVES WILL BE TO CARVE OUT A
BROAD SCALE TROF IN THE WEST...AND ALSO TROF IN THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN...WE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS...EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA...NOT WITHSTANDING A SLGT CHANCE POP
TMRW IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE THIS TRANSITION TAKES PLACE.

ALSO OF INTEREST...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF FL.
THIS WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE TO TRACK...AS THE GFS MODELS IT/AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE SE U.S. AND UNDER THE RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE OUR TEMPS/DEW POINTS HOVER IN THE
80S/60S THRU THE COURSE OF THE WEEK AS THESE FEATURES TAKE SHAPE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DECREASING CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXISTING FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE EAST WILL KEEP THE COLUMN CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
FRIDAY AND MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING AS WELL. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SOONER OR LATER AND THIS WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT TAKING PLACE. WE WILL BE UNSTABLE EACH
DAY WITH PW HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS BUT THE
CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND MOISTURE APPEARS TO INCREASE WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING
IN PLACE. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ATTM. NEXT WEEK SOUNDING BEGIN TO DRY OUT A BIT. NOW
WITH THAT SAID IT SEEMS DAYS SIX AND SEVEN HAVE BEEN THE PICK DAY
FOR POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE
TO PUSH POPS BACK YET AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXPECT SOME
OF THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED TO BE BETWEEN 5F AND 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCT TO AT TIMES BKN HIGH BASED CU IN THE 060-070 K FT AGL RANGE
IS POSSIBLE DIURNALLY TODAY AND TMRW. OTHERWISE WILL SEE A SCT TO
AT TIMES BKN AOA 150 K FT AGL SKY. SLY WINDS MAY GUST THRU THE
TEENS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. VFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE THE
FORECAST BUT ADDITIONAL CU INCOMING LATE IN THE PLANNING PERIOD
MAY OFFER SCT-BKN DECKS THREATENING MVFR LEVELS AS A VICINITY POP
BEGINS TO APPEAR OVER SEMO NEAREST KCGI/KPAH TERMINALS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.