Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 262357
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
657 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS RAIN FREE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SCOOTS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. RAIN SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE GULF STATES AND TN. NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS
FROM NEAR 40 TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
PAH FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY, GFS MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF, WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. SINCE WE HAVE BEEN DRY, WILL GO
WITH THE LESS COVERAGE AND QPF SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND WENT WITH
JUST SOME SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY. GFS
LINGERS PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN THURSDAY, SO WILL
CONTINUE GOING WITH THE ECMWF AND KEEP OUR REGION DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GIVE US BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL READINGS THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH.  THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DECREASES A LITTLE AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.  THUS FAR MODELS OVERALL KEEP PRECIP
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH 00Z MONDAY, SO FOR NOW WE HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE N TO NNE AND LIGHT
BUT BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...BP2



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