Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 160459
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AMPLE MOISTURE UPSTREAM WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD AS
WELL...SPELLING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR US.
THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTING EASTWARD A LITTLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE PENNYRILE OF WKY
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS SWIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE DEPARTING TMRW MORNING...A TELECONNECTED
RIDGE FORMS/MOVES IN AND GIVES A DRY START TO THURSDAY. IT`S IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
HEADING INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE BACKED/BUCKLED UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SWLY AND AS SUCH...GETS A WET TONGUE INTERACTION WITH THE
SRN STREAM...WHICH WILL ADVECT OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IN AS WE HEAD
INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL RIDE INTO/OVERTOP
THE UPPER RIDGE...AND RESULT IN SMALLISH POPS UNTIL THE MAIN LOW CAN
EJECT. SO...WHILE THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANCE OF
PCPN...IT DOES NOT YET COME TOGETHER TO SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY
CONTINUOUS WET WEATHER FORECAST UNTIL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AS A RESULT OF A CLOSED H5 LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE BEST CHANCES IN THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE LOW
INDUCES A SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...DEEP MOISTURE...AND THE SURFACE
LOW SHOULD GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA BOTH
PERIODS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER ENERGY...MOISTURE...ETC MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY ARE UP IN THE AIR
AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISPARITY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA ON
MONDAY BUT THE CANADIAN HOLDS IF BACK FARTHER WEST SO KINDA WENT
WITH A COMPROMISE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT THE GFS BRINGS A
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A SMATTERING OF QPF
(<=.01) WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION A BIT LONGER...SO DECIDED TO KEEP DRY FOR THE MOMENT.

IT LOOKS LIKE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
FRONTOGENESIS WORKING EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH A POCKET OF
MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS/RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z
MAINLY AT KPAH/KEVV/KOWB, WITH DECREASING CHANCES AFTER 11Z. CIGS
WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW VFR/MVFR, BUT LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z AT KCGI/KPAH, AND THROUGH 16Z AT KEVV/KOWB.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 22Z FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 3 TO 9 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST


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