Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 070444
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER MID APPALACHIA WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
DOWN DURING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME. FOR NOW WE EXPECT IT TO
CONTINUE TO ACT TO IMPEDE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TODAY-TONIGHT (NOT
WITHSTANDING AN ISOLATED POP UP)...BUT BY TMRW...SOME MORE
EXPANSIVE INCOMING CHANCES (ALBEIT STILL SMALL) FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

THESE CHANCES ONLY EXPAND AND INCREASE GOING INTO THE FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS THE MEAN LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE TROPICAL LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. HELPS FOSTER THE THOROUGH BREAKDOWN IN THE HIGH...AND THE
OPEN SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL YIELD A STEADY STREAM OF
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS BY FRIDAY.

80S/60S SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY REACHING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY. OVERALL WENT WITH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF A LULL INTO THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE REGION BRIEFLY DRY
SLOTTED, BUT KEPT SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO
TIMING CONCERNS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. READINGS WILL DROP OFF SEVERAL
DEGREES ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN A LITTLE
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE DIURNAL CU ROUTINE PICKS UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH BASED
CU...PERHAPS IN THE 050-060 FT AGL RANGE GIVEN SIMILAR TEMPS AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY ALSO
BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATER IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL
WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT KCGI/KPAH AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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