Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 291735
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1235 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015

THE SAME TROFFY REGIME CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. AS THE FIRST
LOW BARRELS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...A 2NDARY LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROF AND TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK...KEEPING
HEIGHTS NEUTRAL OVER THE PAH FA THRU 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A
DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DROPS DUE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
MID OHIO VALLEY IN THE 36-48 HOUR RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A SLGT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY. THE LOW
DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND OUR H5 HEIGHTS RECOVER SOME 80 DM OR
SO...HINTING AT THE WARMUP TO COME FOR THE WEEKEND. 60S AND 40S
WILL REMAIN THE RULE IN THE INTERIM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015

ON SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND OUT
OF THE REGION. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL RAISE TEMPS INTO THE 70S. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AS ENERGY
MIGRATES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRENGHTENING LOW LEVEL JET/WAA TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE
BECOMES DEEPEST OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SIGNAL IS
BECOMING A BIT STRONGER THAT WE COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THEN. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HIGHEST POPS...ALBEIT SMALL...WILL BE
NORTH OF I-64 BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS MODELS FIGURE OUT WHERE THE WAA
ZONE WILL SET UP.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING WARM ADVECTION PRECIP SHOULD END IN THE
MORNING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY BUT WOULD THINK THAT ANY
LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS.

ON MONDAY...GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD EVEN MORE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING 80 DEGREES. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SMALL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
LATEST RUNS KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOT STILL HAS TO BE WORKED OUT WITHIN THE MODELS
IN ORDER TO CONFIDENTLY GO FORWARD WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL POPS FOR
THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE MAY VERY WELL END UP DRY ON
TUESDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED WITH STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING. BASES WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 5K FEET AGL. WINDS ARE LOCALLY
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH. AS THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AROUND
SUNSET...THE CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD VFR
CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT...WITH BASES ABOVE 4K
FEET. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN SW INDIANA AND NW
KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DH/CW
AVIATION...MY


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