Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 140452
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING PAH FA...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN AS
WELL. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW STROKES OF THUNDER NEARBY BUT NOT
WITHIN FA RECENTLY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY MEANS IT WILL GET ONLY SLGT CHANCE MENTION AND ONLY
ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. GFS DEVELOPS SURFACE WAVE AND LIFTS IT
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY/TN VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE PCPN
FIELD ACROSS MAINLY WKY TONIGHT...AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A HEALTHY 1-2" AVERAGE AREA OF
RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE TIME IT DRAWS TO A
CLOSE TMRW MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH/WEST...WITH TEENS MPH AVERAGE NE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S
MPH AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT-TMRW. THEY`LL START TO RELAX JUST A
LITTLE TMRW PM AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND THE HIGH STRENGTHENS ITS
GRIP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVE DRY PERIOD FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY TIL WED...WHEN THE NEXT POP STARTS TO RAMP BACK UP LATER
WED INTO WED NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WET SWLY FLOW
ALOFT INDUCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE TROFFING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

THE EXTENDED PATTERN WILL BE RATHER UNSETTLED...AS NRN STREAM
PRODUCES AT LEAST TWO MID LEVEL SHRTWVS ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...AND THE SRN STREAM SWRLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES THE SAME... AS A
MID LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INITIALLY. MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE BEST PCPN SIGNALS APPEAR TO BE EARLY THU AND AGAIN ON FRI. ON
FRI...SOME MED RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED TWO SHRTWVS (ONE NORTH/ONE
SOUTH) WILL PHASE, TAPPING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
INSTABILITY SEEMED RATHER LIMITED...SO TSTM CHANCES WERE DOWNPLAYED.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS
SFC WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NRLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE MAIN SHRTWV
APPARENTLY DOMINATED BY THE NRN STREAM...DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL
SOLUTION YOU BELIEVE. TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE
SWRN CONUS LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT THROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PROBABLY BRINGING A SFC LOW INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE PAH FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RAMP UP PCPN/TSTM CHANCES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME FRAME HOWEVER...NO MORE THAN A 50 POP
WAS INCLUDED. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THOUGH CONDITIONS OF INTEREST
WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD...ALLOWING FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY BRIEF IRF
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12-14Z. MUCH DRIER AIR HOLDING STEADY TO THE
NORTH WILL KEEP CIGS AND VSBYS GENERALLY VFR TO MAYBE NEAR MVFR AT
THE TERMINALS DESPITE THE RAIN ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH SUSTAINED VALUES. NAM MOS
MORE CONSERVATIVE. NAM SEEMS TO BE MORE CORRECT. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH A BLEND.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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