Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 132250
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM TEMPS...AS THEY HAVE FALLEN MORE
QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 50DBZ RETURNS ALL WITHIN THE SCOPE OF BELOW
FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST NIL THUNDER. THAT HAS BEEN THE TREND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMOVED THAT ELEMENT. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE COVERAGE IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
INTO SEMO. THIS TREND SHOULD SHIFT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS
BECOMING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING PAH FA...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN AS
WELL. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW STROKES OF THUNDER NEARBY BUT NOT
WITHIN FA RECENTLY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY MEANS IT WILL GET ONLY SLGT CHANCE MENTION AND ONLY
ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. GFS DEVELOPS SURFACE WAVE AND LIFTS IT
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY/TN VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE PCPN
FIELD ACROSS MAINLY WKY TONIGHT...AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A HEALTHY 1-2" AVERAGE AREA OF
RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE TIME IT DRAWS TO A
CLOSE TMRW MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH/WEST...WITH TEENS MPH AVERAGE NE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S
MPH AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT-TMRW. THEY`LL START TO RELAX JUST A
LITTLE TMRW PM AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND THE HIGH STRENGTHENS ITS
GRIP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVE DRY PERIOD FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY TIL WED...WHEN THE NEXT POP STARTS TO RAMP BACK UP LATER
WED INTO WED NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WET SWLY FLOW
ALOFT INDUCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE TROFFING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

THE EXTENDED PATTERN WILL BE RATHER UNSETTLED...AS NRN STREAM
PRODUCES AT LEAST TWO MID LEVEL SHRTWVS ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...AND THE SRN STREAM SWRLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES THE SAME... AS A
MID LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INITIALLY. MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE BEST PCPN SIGNALS APPEAR TO BE EARLY THU AND AGAIN ON FRI. ON
FRI...SOME MED RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED TWO SHRTWVS (ONE NORTH/ONE
SOUTH) WILL PHASE, TAPPING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
INSTABILITY SEEMED RATHER LIMITED...SO TSTM CHANCES WERE DOWNPLAYED.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS
SFC WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NRLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE MAIN SHRTWV
APPARENTLY DOMINATED BY THE NRN STREAM...DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL
SOLUTION YOU BELIEVE. TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE
SWRN CONUS LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT THROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PROBABLY BRINGING A SFC LOW INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE PAH FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RAMP UP PCPN/TSTM CHANCES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME FRAME HOWEVER...NO MORE THAN A 50 POP
WAS INCLUDED. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND POINTS NORTH...MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SOUTH LATE TODAY. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT...WHILE DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MORE PREVALENT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST KY...WITH GENERALLY JUST ABOVE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS ELSEWHERE. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS WELL BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH
SUSTAINED VALUES AND MAY BE A TAD MORE CORRECT. WILL BLEND IT WITH
NAM MOS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION (CN)


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