Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 021954
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE...AND LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT WARMING
TREND. THE FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SPURIOUS QPF...MAINLY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT IT HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND IN TIME
AND SPACE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...SO HAVE
LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE IT. SURFACE RIDGING HAS THE GULF PRETTY
WELL LOCKED OFF FROM OUR REGION...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP OR SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION
THROUGH MONDAY.

GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THAT RESULTS IN LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES GENERATES BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES TO AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK. IN A NUTSHELL...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LONGEST STRETCH OF
WARM TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK IS WHETHER TO
MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TRUTH
BE TOLD...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MAY BE TOO DRY AND
WEAKLY CAPPED TO SUPPORT MUCH ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOTH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WHEN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT BETTER.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY STREAMS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FURTHER
EROSION OF ANY REMNANT MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND S TO
SSE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...BP2



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