Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 302248
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
548 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR MADISONVILLE TO PADUCAH AT
19Z...MARKED BY A STRONG DEW POINT GRADIENT AND A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY
BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS WITH IT. TEMPS
ALOFT ARE VERY COLD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST INDIANA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT NO THUNDER HAS YET
BEEN REPORTED IN WEST KENTUCKY.

OTHERWISE...TONIGHT LOOKS CLEAR AND VERY COOL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S...A TOUCH OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING SPOTS. HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL NOT BE IDEAL WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF TO OUR
WEST.

ON FRIDAY...NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH CROSSES MISSOURI. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
A COOL BIAS WITH HIGH TEMPS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MAY BE
DUE TO OVERESTIMATION OF CLOUD COVER AND/OR THE QUICKLY INCREASING
SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BIAS BY
NUDGING TEMPS TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL YIELD
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 70.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE INTO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST. A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BEGIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON
SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN...AND THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRECIP CHANCE TO MENTION ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY AND MILD STRETCH WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND MODEST SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WEST...WITH A HEALTHY RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
COAST UP THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. THERE IS SOME DEBATE IN HOW
MUCH TROUGHING TO KEEP OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY POSTED FOR THE I-64 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY HAVE BEEN REMOVED...AS EVEN THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER. THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TUESDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK
MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE LACKING.

THE MAIN QUESTION HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
IS HOW FAR EAST WILL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
REACH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO MORE TROUGHING IN
THE NORTHEAST...WHICH HELPS TO BOLSTER THE RIDGE OVER OUR REGION AND
FORCES THAT ENERGY TO LIFT MORE NORTHWARD RATHER THAN NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION. THE ECMWF GETS US MORE INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WHICH LEADS TO BETTER CHANCES OF OUR REGION
GETTING WET ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE TROUGH IN THE
WEST...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...AS IN THE GFS...WOULD SEEM TO BE
MORE REASONABLE.

WILL NOT SPLIT HAIRS WITH THE POP FORECAST HERE. WILL HAVE LOWER
CHANCE POPS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS...LEAVING JUST THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S AND LOWS AROUND 60 WILL BE COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR. FEW TO NO CLOUDS TONIGHT. SOME CU POSSIBLE KEVV/KOWB
TOMORROW. WINDS NNE UP TO 5 KTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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