Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 181741 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT IS
SEEN VIA SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERING THE FORECAST.
THE RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL/ELEVATED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THEN....AFTER ABOUT 00Z MON...WE ARE MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SPIKING AGAIN AS
THE MID LEVEL WAVE IS POISED TO COME THRU THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH IT WILL COME SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL DRIVE
US INTO THE SLGT RISK SVR. THIS AREA OF GOOD POPS WILL END UPON
FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A
DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...TIMING OF MINOR
IMPULSES IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN GENERATES SOME INCONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS...AND THIS LEADS TO ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. SUBMERSED IN THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATING FROM THE 40S INTO THE LOWER 50S BY LATE
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE OFTEN TRICKY NATURE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW. YESTERDAY...THE GFS STARTED TO
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION COULD MAKE A RETURN AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY TRANSLATES THROUGH THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. WITH THE LATEST 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF INTRODUCES A
SMALL CHANCE STARTING WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...WE PLAN TO STICK
CLOSE TO THE INITIALIZED MODEL BLEND...WHICH KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK SOMEWHAT BETTER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE RATHER DISPARATE AT THIS
POINT AND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO OVERALL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR WITH
SHOWERS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
BACK TO MVFR ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AT KCGI/KPAH. WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...JP



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