Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 051800
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FA AGAIN THIS PM...ALONG WITH
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK LOBE OF PVA CIRCULATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER HIGH
OVER SEMO. THIS MIGHT TOUCH OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER YET IN THE
OZARKS OR NEARBY FOOTHILLS...SO WE`VE MAINTAINED A 20 POP THERE
TIL THE CLOSE OF THE (DIURNAL HEATING) BUSINESS DAY.

AFTERWARDS...A 583DM H5 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER MID
APPALACHIA...AND RIDGES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
SERVE TO SUPPRESS ANY OF THE BUCKLED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FLOW HEADED
OUR WAY FROM THE CONTINUOUS SOUTHWEST U.S...WHERE THE SOUTHERN JET
STREAM IS OPENING UP FROM...AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
TROPICALLY INFLUENCED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CIRCULATE
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTAL AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS HELPS WEAKEN THE HIGH...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME OF THAT
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME/EMBEDDED RIPPLES WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE WESTERN CWA WITH A SLGT CHANCE MENTIONABLE ON
THURSDAY...PERHAPS AIDED BY SOME PM HEATING INSTABILITY.

PLEASANTLY WARM LOW-MID 80S/LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM DURATION...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE STRENGTH AND
PATH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL PREFERENCE...IT APPEARS THAT WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE. THERE IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A DEEP CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
SEND PIECES OF ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TO SPREAD EAST INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA. FORECAST POPS WILL BE IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS SE MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER. THE 00Z GFS AND
GEFS ARE CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOCATION OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE FRONT
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT BACK IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE GFS
CAMP IS WETTER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST WILL BE
BASED ON A MODEL BLEND...WHICH MEANS CHANCE POPS REGIONWIDE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST 500 MB LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE FORM OF A DEAMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE MODELS VARY WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...SO THE HIGHEST POPS (NEAR 50 PERCENT) WILL
BE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE INHIBITED BY
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...GENERALLY UNDER 30 KNOTS. THERE IS LESS
MODEL AGREEMENT ON WIND FIELDS AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPS IS FORECAST DURING
THE LONG TERM. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 14 CELSIUS HAVE TRANSLATED TO HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S WITH ABUNDANT SUN. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
FRIDAY WHEN SUNSHINE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ON
MONDAY...THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

DIURNAL BASES FROM 050-070 FT AGL MAY OCCASIONAL BECOME BKN THRU
00Z...BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH LOSS OF FUEL.
MID DECKS FROM NEARBY ISOLATED CONVECTION (IN THE SEMO OZARKS)
MAY PROVIDE A POTENTIAL HIGHER CIG DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH IT`S NOT GENERALLY EXPECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLYS WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 10 KTS ON AVG TODAY...WITH
A POTENTIAL GUST INTO THE TEENS...THEN SLACKEN TO LIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN DIURNALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PLANNING PERIOD TMRW. HIGH CU BASES MAY AGAIN DEVELOP BY THEN IN
THE 050-070 FT AGL RANGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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