Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 172018
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE EFFECTS OF AN EJECTING SWRN
CONUS MID/UPPER LOW MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A
SLACK SFC HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN. FOR MUCH OF THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...AND PCPN APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO SERN MO IN THE AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THE SWRN CONUS LOW...THE INCREASING PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
DUE TO A TIGHT SFC LOW AND ITS PARENT LOBE OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVING
NWD UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS FEATURE MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR REGION SAT NIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE A CERTAINTY...WITH TSTMS LIKELY. THE WRN HALF OF THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO HAVE A DROP-OFF OF PCPN AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES NWD AWAY FROM THE PAH FORECAST AREA. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR LIFT...THUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA.
THE FRONT`S AND ITS PARENT MID LEVEL SHRTWV TROF`S ENERGY...COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SOME POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
CWA MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CRANKS OUT LIGHT QPF TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TAPS INTO A POCKET OF MOISTURE BUT THE OTHER LONG
RANGE MODELS KEEP OUR REGION DRY...SO DECIDED TO KEEP DRY AT THIS
TIME.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH MODELS NOT ON THE SAME PAGE. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SMATTER LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MORE POCKETS
OF MOISTURE AND WEAK RIPPLES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THE ECMWF BRINGS
IN SMALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
WHILE THE CANADIAN KEEPS US DRY.

UNFORTUNATELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD MODELS DIVERGE EVEN
MORE. IF THE GFS PANS OUT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HANGS UP A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER OUR AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND GENERATES NO DISCERNIBLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST CANADIAN
MODEL RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 12Z THURSDAY...THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME IT
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE ANYBODY`S GUESS AT THIS TIME.
THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW ATTACHED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED BOUNDARY DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR CWA KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AREA WIDE WHILE THE ECMWF BARELY BRINGS SMALL CHANCES INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RATHER THAN YANK POPS AND
YO-YO BACK AND FORTH...JUST WENT WITH A FLAT 20 POP.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...IF THEY
ARE NOT THERE ALREADY. CIRRUS BLOW-OFF FROM CONVECTION IN TN WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. UNDER A SLACK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. THUS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR FOG WILL BE
AT KCGI...AND IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KPAH...KEVV...AND
KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB


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