Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KPAH 310253
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.