Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 210643
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
143 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A PASSING WAVE IN THE MEAN BROAD CYCLONE`S TROF WILL ALLOW
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ASSOCIATED POPS TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD
ALONG THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. THE
WAVE/BOUNDARY MAKES PASSAGE BY TMRW...SO POPS WILL END WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE SURFACE. SOME DIRTY OVERRUN OF THE HIGH
FROM THE SOUTH MAY WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE POP REAPPEARANCE THERE
WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE WE`LL CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM MAINLY
DRY/UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. UPPER LEVEL NWLYS KEEP THE
COOLISH AIRMASS REINFORCED WITH 60S/40S STAYING THE RULE...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FARTHEST NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE UPPER
30S/UPPER 50S ON THE COLDEST DAY/AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSAGE...IE
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE DOMINANT FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM...ONE DEEP VORTEX OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST...AND ANOTHER
SETTLING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION. WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL
AFFECT THE LOWER 48. THE FIRST ONE OF INTEREST...SHOULD BE A MID
LEVEL TROF/LOW MOVING FROM THE SW U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM 00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT...TURNING ESE AND WEAKENING ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THE FOCUS IS ON ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
ESE FROM THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY.

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
ISSUES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
CONUS BELOW THE TWO SIGNIFICANT VORTICES. THIS MEANS WE WILL
PARALLEL WPC`S IDEA OF BLENDING THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR
HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...AND RESULTANT
HIGHER POP PERIODS. WE REMOVED POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADJUSTED POPS FRIDAY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND PEAKED POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE WAVE COMING IN FROM THE PLAINS AND AFFECTING
THE REGION. SHOULD SEE POPS TAIL OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER WAVE HEADS ESE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LULL SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A
LIMITED THUNDER CHANCE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A
ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND OF THE GFS/EC/NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER
WITH TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20KTS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE. POPS ATTENDANT TO THE WAVE WILL SHOW UP ON
THE BACK END OF THE FORECAST AS IT MAKES PASSAGE AND WINDS
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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