Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 132003
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING PAH FA...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN AS
WELL. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW STROKES OF THUNDER NEARBY BUT NOT
WITHIN FA RECENTLY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY MEANS IT WILL GET ONLY SLGT CHANCE MENTION AND ONLY
ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. GFS DEVELOPS SURFACE WAVE AND LIFTS IT
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY/TN VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE PCPN
FIELD ACROSS MAINLY WKY TONIGHT...AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A HEALTHY 1-2" AVERAGE AREA OF
RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE TIME IT DRAWS TO A
CLOSE TMRW MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH/WEST...WITH TEENS MPH AVERAGE NE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S
MPH AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT-TMRW. THEY`LL START TO RELAX JUST A
LITTLE TMRW PM AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND THE HIGH STRENGTHENS ITS
GRIP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVE DRY PERIOD FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY TIL WED...WHEN THE NEXT POP STARTS TO RAMP BACK UP LATER
WED INTO WED NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WET SWLY FLOW
ALOFT INDUCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE TROFFING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

THE EXTENDED PATTERN WILL BE RATHER UNSETTLED...AS NRN STREAM
PRODUCES AT LEAST TWO MID LEVEL SHRTWVS ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...AND THE SRN STREAM SWRLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES THE SAME... AS A
MID LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INITIALLY. MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE BEST PCPN SIGNALS APPEAR TO BE EARLY THU AND AGAIN ON FRI. ON
FRI...SOME MED RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED TWO SHRTWVS (ONE NORTH/ONE
SOUTH) WILL PHASE, TAPPING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
INSTABILITY SEEMED RATHER LIMITED...SO TSTM CHANCES WERE DOWNPLAYED.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS
SFC WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NRLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE MAIN SHRTWV
APPARENTLY DOMINATED BY THE NRN STREAM...DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL
SOLUTION YOU BELIEVE. TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE
SWRN CONUS LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT THROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PROBABLY BRINGING A SFC LOW INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE PAH FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RAMP UP PCPN/TSTM CHANCES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME FRAME HOWEVER...NO MORE THAN A 50 POP
WAS INCLUDED. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

WIDESPREAD CIGS FROM LOW VFR TO MVFR WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE THIS PM AND RELATED RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLD RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS
MAY INCLUDE TEMPORARY MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT/IF NOT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ULTIMATELY FROPA WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW...EFFECTIVELY
ENDING POPS AND ALLOWING CIGS TO RECOVER BACK TO VFR RANGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLANNING PERIOD. WINDS WILL STIFFEN AS THEY TURN
TO THE NE AFTER FROPA...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S KTS TONIGHT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...DB



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