Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 142001
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE PAH CWA AS IT
DEPARTS TN FOR THE MID ATLANTIC THIS PM. EVENTUALLY...THAT WILL
ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH TO RELAX AND THE WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME FROM THEIR LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY GUSTINESS. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE HIGH TO DRAW
SOME DRIER AIR DOWN THE COLUMN...AND GIVES US A RELATIVE LULL IN
POPS UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND.

A TELECONNECTED WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS RELATIVE
SHORT TERM DRY PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SO
AFTER A MAINLY DRY NIGHT TONIGHT...POPS WILL REENTER THE FORECAST
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT-INTO TMRW...AS THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE 100-120 KT JET CORE DIGGING A LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE MID ROCKIES REGION. NUMEROUS SRN STREAM SHORT
WAVES INTERACT AND SHIFT ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT IS IN PLACE TO OUR
SOUTH...NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE MODELS PICK UP ON
ONE SUCH (WEAK) WAVE IN PARTICULAR LIFTING OUT OF THIS FLOW THAT
INDUCES A RELATIVE SPIKE IN POPS WED EVENING AND TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE AREA THRU THURSDAY MORNING. POPS DIMINISH/TAPER THEREAFTER...BUT
DO NOT DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER...AS THAT WAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST INCLUSION OF THUNDER BEYOND ABOUT 18Z
WEDNESDAY IS WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MENTIONABLES IS PROBABLY ALL
THAT IS NECESSARY AT THIS WRITING GIVEN THE SUPPORTING MAINLY
ELEVATED PARAMETERS ARE ONLY MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THOUGH THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS APPEARED
QUITE SIMILAR...THE GFS OPERATIONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUED TO
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE OTHER MED RANGE MODELS UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...NOTABLY ITS FASTER EJECTION OF A SWRN CONUS MID LEVEL
LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS SEEMED TO
AGREE ON THE MERGING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS INTO A LARGE...
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THUS THE CURRENT GFS
WILL BE LARGELY IGNORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATE FRI/EARLY SAT...A SFC LOW/TROF IS PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE WRN
GULF REGION AND MOVE ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SRN THIRD OF THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE SAT
NIGHT UNDER DRIER ERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED SWRN CONUS
LOW AND ITS SFC REFLECTION SHOULD BE ON ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY...OFFERING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY AND THUS TSTM ACTIVITY.

PCPN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MON
AS A SFC HIGH SURGES INTO OUR REGION UNDER DRY NWRLY/CYCLONIC FLOW.

EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP FROM SOMEWHAT ABOVE SEASONABLE
AVERAGES TO ABOUT AVERAGE BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS DRAWING DRIER AIR DOWN THE COLUMN
AND RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS YIELDING TO VFR CIGS THIS PM. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER...AS THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN EVENT MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. ALSO AS THIS OCCURS...NE WINDS BEGIN
TO RELAX/DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY LIKEWISE LOSE
THEIR GUSTINESS UPON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS
LOOSENS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WE SOUP UP AGAIN WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND AN INCOMING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE SOUTH/WEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...DB



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