Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 190657
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
157 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NEW SWODY1 GREATLY DOWNPLAYS THE SVR RISK FOR OUR FA...AND
THIS LOOKS AGREEABLE WITH THE INSTABILITLY FIELDS/BETTER SHEAR TO
OUR SOUTH. STILL...WE WARRANT A MARGINAL MENTION...WITH THE
SURFACE WAVES LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT IN A HIGH POP EVENT.

POPS SHOULD TAPER WEST-TO-EAST ON MONDAY AS THE WAVES LIFT OUT. BY
00Z TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING IN AND WILL
EXPAND ITS REACH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THRU MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLDOWN FROM 70S/50S SUNDAY...TO 60S/40S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE SE U.S. AND THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
UNDERNEATH THE BROAD NE U.S. TROF BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN
TO THE AREA BY LATE TUE-TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

WE WILL BE IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD...AS A
LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THEREFORE...THE COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 60S. MODELS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS INDICATE SOME
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH ALOFT BUT THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH HOW
MUCH QPF IS GENERATED. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH AND
POSSIBLY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
IS QUESTIONABLE SO NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS FOR NOW.

MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY IT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS FORECAST
PRECIP ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WELL. SO WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
NOSING INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THIS LASTS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GIVING US DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN. AGAIN...TIMING
CONTINUES TO AN ISSUE...AS MODELS DO NOT AGREE WHEN TO EXIT THE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK (NORMAL
HIGH IN PADUCAH/EVANSVILLE IS 70/69 RESPECTIVELY)...AS WE STAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDWESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS FEATURE STARTS
MOVING EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LOWER MID DECK CIGS AND INTRODUCE MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT. THEN
AFTER A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE PM HOURS...SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SURFACE LOWS EJECT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$


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