Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281926
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
226 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

LOOKING AT A DRY AND PLEASANT FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AND SRN STREAM SPLIT FLOW
UPPER LOW STAYS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH/EAST. FAIRLY POTENT UPPER
LVL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SW IN AND THE NRN
PENNYRILE OF WRN KY. WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW FOR NOW AS MOST OF THE
ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER N/E.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN
CHALLENGE. THINK MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON...BUT AREAS OF WRN KY AND SW IN COULD HANG ON TO THEM A
LITTLE LONGER. WILL SHADE A BIT LOWER THAN MOS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. COULD END UP WITH A 10+ DEGREE SPREAD DEPENDING ON
THE SUNSHINE RECEIVED THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE RISING
500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AS THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
WILL LEAVE OUR REGION IS A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE RESULT SHOULD BE WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PLENTY OF LATE
APRIL SUN WILL OFFSET A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 IN SOME
AREAS.

ON SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL RAISE TEMPS INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
ON THE TRAILING END OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOST MODEL QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF
PRECIP OVER MISSOURI...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SOME OF THIS WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING WARM ADVECTION PRECIP SHOULD END IN THE
MORNING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S.

ON MONDAY...GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MAY
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL POPS NORTH AND WEST OF KPAH
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF 500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING OUR BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER FLOW
PATTERN AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...POPS WILL BE ONLY IN THE
LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. NNE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING
THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE PASSING
DISTURBANCE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY



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