Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 220821
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

COLD FRONT ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AT THIS WRITING...SHOULD
MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS NEARLY ENTIRE FA BY AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. CONVERGENCE OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN LOWER TROP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCE THIS
MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS PM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE FA FROM THE NORTH/WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
FRONT.

THE HIGH RIDGES OVERTOP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. IT DRAWS
DOWN COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN...AND THIS COULD EVEN
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP
INTO THE 30S.

THE HIGH FIRMS ITS GRIP ON THURSDAY...AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT AND
TIMING.  MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD QPF SATURDAY, WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO CHANCE POPS WEST, WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH LI`S WELL BELOW ZERO ON
SATURDAY, CONTINUED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  INSTABILITY MOVES
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ELIMINATE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL GIVE US DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.  GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF,
BUT ECMWF NOW TAKES IT SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND KEEPS US DRY, WHILE
GFS IS ON A SIMILAR PATH AS YESTERDAY BUT WITH MORE QPF.  BASED ON
GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT, WENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.  WENT WITH
SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH
LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD
FRONT ADVANCING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY TMRW
MORNING. COULD HAVE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AT EVV/OWB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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