Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 231849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...KH



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