Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 291930
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK FORMED DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS.
THESE HIGH BASED CLOUDS ARE THE RESULT OF STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. KPAH RADAR INDICATED SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE OZARK
FOOTHILLS AS OF 19Z. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES REACHING THE
GROUND IN THIS AREA.

LATER TONIGHT...A COMPACT 500 MB LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST LAYER AROUND 850
TO 700 MB WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. THERE IS SOME LIGHT QPF INDICATED OVER THE WABASH
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA BY SOME OF THE MODELS AFTER 06Z.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
EXTENSIVE HIGH BASED CU OR STRATOCU...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MODEL SOUNDINDS INDICATE A SMALL AMOUNT OF
CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONFINED MAINLY IN THE 850 TO 650 MB
LAYER. THIS MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW...FROM THE WABASH VALLEY AND KENTUCKY LAKE REGION
EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SKIMPY WITH THE QPF...SO THE
GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE. HIGHS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...SINCE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COOL AS SKIES BECOME CLEAR AND WINDS
SLACKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS ON NIGHTS
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING /SUCH AS KMVN/ WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S. COULD NOT RULE OUT A TOUCH OF FROST IN THOSE AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI.
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT LATE APRIL SUN SHOULD BUMP TEMPS UP TO NEAR
70. DESPITE LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES...BACK TO WHERE THEY ARE TODAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND COOL NIGHT AS THE HIGH PASSES
OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WE HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE
COOLISH AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK...BUT WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. MEANWHILE...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE
ON THE RISE. THE MAIN CHANNEL OF WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY
ZONAL ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A GENERALLY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF GENERATING SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG I-64.
THE 12Z GFS AND GEM ARE DRY IN THIS TIME FRAME AND ARE PREFERRED.
HOWEVER...WE ALREADY HAD SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...SO
WILL LEAVE THEM IN FOR THIS FORECAST.

A GFS SOUNDING NEAR KPAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT DIURNAL
FORCING COULD BUST THE CAP...SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WEAK WINDS AND MEAGER MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT
ANY STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE IN DEVELOPING
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH
RIDGING RUNNING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE INTERNAL DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH...BUT EACH HAS A LEAD DISTURBANCE/LOW LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY SPREAD SOME
CONVECTION EASTWARD INTO MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DURING THE DAY.
THE FLOW IS STILL PRETTY WEAK...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 80
FOR HIGHS AND AROUND 60 FOR LOWS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED WITH STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING. BASES WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 5K FEET AGL. WINDS ARE LOCALLY
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH. AS THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AROUND
SUNSET...THE CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD VFR
CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT...WITH BASES ABOVE 4K
FEET. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN SW INDIANA AND NW
KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...MY



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