Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 230224
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
924 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH...MIGHT SEE A
LITTLE COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER MCLEAN AND NORTHEAST MULHENBURG
COUNTIES IN WEST KENTUCKY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM-WRF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAMILIES AND RAP GUIDANCE
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE COLDER AND AND FROST POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CRAWLEY`S RIDGE/SHAWNEE HILLS
REGION.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SLOW THE DEGREE AND INTENSITY OF THE
RETURNING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO
MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD REDUCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTION IN RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 438 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SORRY FOR THE LATE NOTICE.

TALKS WITH A STATE AGRONOMIST IN PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO
SEE PATCHY FROST AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT
NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM
CDT THURSDAY MORNING. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PRIVATE AND COMMERCIAL
STRAWBERRY GROWERS...AS WELL AS PRIVATE AND COMMERCIAL PLANT
GROWERS WITH PLANTS VERY SENSITIVE TO FROST DEVELOPMENT.

FROST ADVISORY AREA OUTLINED IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A PIEDMONT
MISSOURI...VIENNA ILLINOIS...CALHOUN KENTUCKY LINE AT THIS TIME.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR COVERAGE IS THE AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION AT
THE GROUND SURFACE FROM THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL ENOUGH ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAIN
EVENTS...INCLUDING THE ONE LAST NIGHT TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. MOS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S I-64 CORRIDOR OR JUST SOUTH.
PATCHY FROST WAS ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS THOUGH IT
LOOKS MARGINAL ESPECIALLY WITH FORECAST TEMP / DEW POINT SPREADS
WHAT THEY ARE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY COULD MAKE
IT INTO SEMO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST. USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. MODEL PREFERENCE
WAS A GFS/NAM BLEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE WITH PATH
OF THE SYSTEM MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODELS RUNS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK WILL HIT US WHILE OTHERS SHOW A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH.

MAIN CONCERN WITH EXTENDED WILL BE WITH STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH MOST MODELS NEAR ONE INCH OR LESS PW OR NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOW A GOOD SPEED SHEAR NOT SO MUCH ON
WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR I.E SRH <10M2/S2. HOWEVER WITH 850MB-500MB
LAPSE RATES 7+/KM AND MU CAPES BETWEEN 3K AND 4K ANY THING THAT DOES
GET GOING HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND AND WITH THE FREEZING
LEVEL NEAR 10K COULD NOT RULE OUT HAIL EITHER. CONSIDERING THE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH SHEAR TO GET SOME
ROTATION.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
ITS HEELS. THE 00Z WED EU TAKES THIS ENERGY SOUTH OF THE FA THROUGH
THE LOWER TN VALLEY. THE 12Z EU TAKES BRINGS IT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH OUR CWA TUE AND EXITS WED EARLY. THE CANADIAN IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 06Z WED DGEX BRINGS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW RIGHT THROUGH OUR CWA. SOME ENSEMBLES THE GEFS GEPS AND
EPS TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM SOUTH BUT STILL BRINGS PRECIP OVER
THE AREA. THUS WILL ALLOW EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION CALCULATE
JUST WHAT POPS TO INCLUDE.

WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR FORECASTS. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MAY RESULT IN SOME MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS AT KCGI AND KPAH OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE FEW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...SO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING. MIXING ON THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS AT KEVV AND KOWB.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>091.

MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100.

IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ014-015-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
AVIATION...DRS


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