Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

NEAR TERM ON TRACK...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
SOUTHERN INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...LIGHTNING NOW OBSERVED WEST OF
OUR CWFA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...DESPITE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL DIMINISH POPS FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRY
BY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ANGLING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. CHANCES
OF SHOWERS MAY EXIST JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR OUR CWFA BORDER.
CAN ADJUST IF NEED BE. TEMPS A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS.
NAM HIGH RES AND HRRR A REASONABLE APPROACH FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO FALL SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH
PRIOR ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL IN ALL...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER TROF SHOULD EJECT NE INTO THE PLAINS BY
00Z SAT WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY SPREADING EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. S/WV RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROF NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ONCOMING SHRA/TSRA CHANCE. SO WE ARE ON THE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. LIKELY POPS STILL IN PLAY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY SATURDAY AS WELL...AS THE UPPER TROF
WEAKENS...AND THE REMNANT ENERGY TURNS ESE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION. SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO ESSENTIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION.
CHANCES TAIL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
WERE UTILIZED AND OPERATIONAL MODELS THROWN OUT. A HIGHLY COMPLEX
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE WITH SOME KIND OF A TROUGH EAST OF
THE PLAINS AND RIDGE WEST. HOWEVER THERE IS TOO MUCH VARIABILITY
IN THE DETAILS TO SIDE WITH ANY OPS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. ITS
GOING TO CHANGE. WE FEE COMFORTABLE MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE UNSETTLED LOOK TO THE PATTERN. TEMPS WERE A
BLEND OF BASE MODEL OUTPUT AND EXISTING FORECAST NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THEY WILL CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GUSTS SUBSIDING AFTER 00-02Z.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND
LAST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GREATEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE
KCGI/KPAH AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED...I.E. SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FLY AROUND...SO OPTED FOR JUST A VCTS. WILL UPGRADE TO
A TEMPO GROUP IF STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY LOWER
CIGS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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