Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 130441
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1141 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS MOISTURE JUST UPSTREAM/TO OUR WEST...AND IT`S
POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY. MODELS BRING PRECIPITATING MOISTURE INTO
FA BY LATE TONIGHT...AS MEAN LOW MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND
BROKEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH THRU PAH FA TO INVERTED
TROF-LIKE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SRN PLAINS STATES INTO TX.
THIS BOUNDARY MORE OR LESS SAGS THRU FA AND STALLS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE MOISTURE OVERRUNS/ELEVATED
INSTABILITY KEEPS PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES IN FORECAST DESPITE DRIER
AIR TRYING TO WORK IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AS THE
DRIER AIR STARTS TO WIN OUT TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH
CENTERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER WABASH RIVER VALLEY...WE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY SEE A WANE IN POPS OR RELATIVE POPS AS WE CLOSE
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

MEAN TELECONNECTED RIDGING TUE NIGHT-WED SHIFTS EAST AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...GIVING WAY TO DEVELOPMENTS TO OUR
WEST. LONG WAVE TROFFING/HEIGHT FALLS IN DESERT S.W. WILL BACK
FLOW TO UPPER LEVEL SWLYS WHICH WILL BE QUITE MOIST...ALLOWING FOR
A MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION SPIKE IN POPS AND THE BEGINNING OF A
SORT OF "MESSY" SPRING LIKE PATTERN WITH DAILY OFF AND ON TYPE
POPS...AS PIECES OF ENERGY SHOOT OUT OF THIS MEAN LOW/WAVE AND
RIDE THRU THE MOIST SWLYS AFFECTING RAIN CHANCES HERE. IT`S TOO
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN EXACT BI-DAILY LOCATIONS/POPS SO WE`LL SMOOTH
TO 12 HOUR GRIDS AND TREND THRU THE LONG RANGE. DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN
CHANCES...SHOULD SEE DAILY HIGHS AND LOWS RUNNING MAINLY IN THE
70S/50S CONTINUING THRU THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER VFR CIGS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ALONG WITH RAIN/ISOLD THUNDER BECOME POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS THREAT FOR PRECIP CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL START OUT AS SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN SWITCH
AROUND TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND INCREASING... BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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