Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KSGF 062001

301 PM CDT Wed May 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

It continues to look like a messy and active forecast for the next
several days across the region, as a series of shortwaves emanating
from a large, western CONUS trough move through the central portion
of the U.S.

Starting out this afternoon, a few areas of showers continue to move
northeast across the region.  These are more or less "leftovers" from
convection that formed last night across Kansas, and appear to be
just along and ahead of an upper level vort lobe rotating northeast
through Missouri.  This activity should continue to dissipate
through the rest of the afternoon, with a combination of subsidence
and the loss of sunshine likely resulting in several dry hours this
evening into the first part of the overnight hours.

Heading into tomorrow morning, thunderstorms that are currently
firing across central Kansas will try to move into the eastern
fringes of the forecast area after midnight, with additional
expansion of showers/storms then expected toward daybreak as the low
level jet begins to veer with time.  Not unlike the last few days,
we should then see some scattered convection through the afternoon
tomorrow.  While widespread severe weather is not expected Thursday,
a few stronger storms may be possible, with instability expected to
be a bit more robust compared to today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

Regular rounds of convection will continue from Friday through the
weekend, with some uptick in both coverage and intensity expected
Saturday and Sunday as the upper level low and associated surface
boundaries begin to get a little closer to the area.  It`s tough to
hang one`s hat on any specific time period or scenario for an
organized severe weather threat, as the rather messy nature of this
system will keep severe weather potential somewhat conditional.
This will certainly be something to keep an eye on over the next few
days, as details hopefully become a little more clear.

In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rain/flooding
potential remains a concern, especially heading into the weekend
once several rounds of rainfall have already taken place.  The
global models, as well as WPC QPF are in general agreement in a
broad area of 2-4 inches of rain over southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri, with the potential for higher amounts depending on
the exact track of convection.  Thankfully, the lack of rain over
the last week or two has resulted in decent capacity, and with rain
falling over the course of several days (as opposed to several
hours), any flooding concerns would likely be more gradual in
nature.  At the very least, it does appear that increased stream
flows and perhaps a few elevated low water crossings are
increasingly likely this weekend.

It does appear that the main upper trough should finally pass
through the region by Monday, bringing at least a temporary end to
the rain. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected early next
week in this system`s wake, with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s and
lows around 50.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

Scattered showers will continue to diminish by early afternoon for
all TAF sites and mainly VFR conditions should continue through
the next 24 hours. Have mentioned a tempo group from from 18z to
19z for a brief visibility drop to 5sm with the showers. The only
aviation concern for pilots flying in and out of the Missouri
Ozarks region will be some low level wind shear due to the low jet
developing overnight and gusty winds up to 25 knot for JLN this
afternoon. Otherwise...mostly a broken deck of clouds around 15k
through tomorrow morning.




LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.