Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 010846
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

...Active Weather the Next Few Days...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

Our weather will become increasingly unsettled today as a shortwave
trough tracks northeast from western Oklahoma and a warm front
lifts northward. Convection was ongoing this morning across central
and portions of eastern Oklahoma. This activity will continue a
diminishing trend as it spreads northeastward toward the Ozarks.
However expect activity to become invigorated during the day with
the help of surface heating and the approach of the shortwave. The
result will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
today with the greatest coverage across far southern Missouri.
Deep layer shear will be relatively weak today and the risk for
severe storm development is low. Cloud cover and scattered convection
will impact temperatures today but expect 70s area wide.

A broad upper level trough will take shape out west into the northern
Plains today into tonight in response to a strong zonal jet stream.
A lead shortwave will track into the northern Plains tonight while
a front takes across the Plain states. Widespread convection will
develop along this front tonight then spread southeastward. The
leading edge of this activity will reach southeastern Kansas into
central Missouri late tonight into early Thursday morning. Expect
this activity to be in a diminishing mode and present only a
limited risk for severe weather late tonight into early Thursday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

The cold front will continue a slow southward migration toward the Ozarks
Thursday while the upper pattern becomes increasingly zonal. Lingering
morning convection and cloud debris will have an impact on warming
potential and the extent of surface destabilization Thursday afternoon
as the front nearly stalls from southeastern Kansas into central
Missouri. However a continued moistening of the airmass, steepening
lapse rates and at least some surface heating will yield afternoon
CAPE values around 1500 J/KG. This along with increasing deep
layer shear on the order of 40 to 50 kts will be supportive of
robust updrafts and the risk for strong to severe storms mainly
across southern Missouri.

Expect the convection to continue if not increase into Thursday
evening as a low amplitude shortwave trough approaches from the
west. Hail and damaging winds look to be the primary risk with any
severe storms that develop. Veering low level flow will be an inhibiting
factor to tornadic potential.

The potential for multiple rounds of rainfall and training convection
could lead to heavy rainfall totals and the risk for flooding. Total
rainfall amounts of one to two inches could be common. The flood
potential will be closely monitored.

The primary shortwave trough axis will swing across the region Friday
which will push the cold front to the south. Rain and perhaps some
embedded thunder will linger into Friday morning with rainfall
diminishing from the west during the day. The lingering precipitation
coupled with cold air advection will lead to a much cooler day.

Dry weather will return Saturday and Sunday but temperatures will
remain on the cooler side. Friday night will be the coldest night
with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s which could result
in a risk for frost.

Active weather will return early into the middle of next week as
another upper level trough evolves to our west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Not expecting cluster of storms down in central OK to make it into
our CWA tonight, but will see some mid/high level cloudiness
move in from this area of convection. Will also start to see low
level moisture increase from the south and MVFR conditions with
light fog and stratus developing towards morning and continuing
into the morning at the TAF sites. May see some convection develop
over southern Missouri on Wednesday afternoon and have thrown in a
prob30 group for BBG to account for this.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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