Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 031758 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

It is another quiet morning across the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures are starting off a little milder this morning that
previous mornings. There are some high and mid level clouds
moving across the skies but no precip. The lower atmosphere is
still very dry and stable.

A flat upper level ridge is in control of our weather pattern for
the time being. A surface low will develop today over southwest
Kansas. This will cause a pressure gradient over the area with
breezy southwest winds expected today. This will help warm
temperatures to around 80 for most locations. Wind gusts could
approach 35 mph for areas of southeast Kansas and western Missouri
this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A cold front across the northern Plains region will try to make a
run toward the Missouri Ozarks but come up short and run out of
momentum by Monday morning. There may be a few more clouds and the
very slight chance for an isolated shower across the far
northwestern areas of the CWA early Monday morning. Most areas will
remain dry.

Monday and Monday night will remain dry and southerly winds will
remain breezy through Tuesday. A large upper level trough of low
pressure across the western U.S. will begin to move out into the
central portions of the country by late Tuesday and Wednesday.
There will be several upper level disturbances that move along the
flow out across the central Plains into the Midwest region for the
middle and end of this week.

The better potential for rain chances with showers and
thunderstorms will start up late Tuesday night across the far
western areas and spread eastward on Wednesday across most of the
Missouri Ozarks. Another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop Thursday across the area followed by
widespread showers and storms again on Friday...possibly lingering
into Saturday. It will be an unsettled and potentially stormy
middle and end of the week. Will not rule out the potential for stronger
convection during the latter half of the week.

Temperatures will be above average in the upper 70s to near 80
for most of the week. With several rounds of showers and storms
potentially for the end of the week...average total rainfall this
upcoming week will be between 1 to 2 inches possible with the
higher amounts west of Highway 65.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Generally, VFR conditions expected through the period. A few very
light showers have materialized this morning across Kansas and
Oklahoma. This activity is expected to dissipate shortly given the
amount of dry air downstream. We decided to leave in a "few" at 4K
feet as the upper-level disturbance responsible for the shower
activity continues to flatten and translate eastward.

In the wake of the upper-level disturbance, ridging will occur this
evening with a reduction in cloud cover expected. Surface winds will
subside around sunset, however, should remain in the 10kt range
given surface pressure gradient between lee trough west and surface
high pressure south and east.  LLWS associated with an increasing
low-level jet overnight is becoming likely over all three
aerodromes overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Frye






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