Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 051110
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Seasonably warm spring weather is in store again today as
southerly winds persist around surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S.

A front will remain stalled from far northern Missouri into
southern high plains. Meanwhile disturbances will track
north across the Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough anchored over the desert southwest. While the focus
for convection will be farther to the north and west in closer
proximity of the aforementioned features isolated convection is
expected to develop by this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
rather disorganized and sparse in nature with the lack of a
focusing mechanism.

Expect an increase in the coverage of precipitation tonight across
eastern Kansas into far western Missouri as convection over the
Plains edges eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday into the
weekend as a southwesterly flow aloft evolves between an upper
level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper level trough
that will remain stationed out west.

Perturbations tracking around the periphery of this upper level
trough and interacting with a meandering frontal boundary stretching
from the southern Plains and into the Midwest will bring periodic
chances of showers and thunderstorms for several days.

The better coverage of convection will occur Wednesday from
southeastern Kansas into central Missouri and developing area wide
Friday into this weekend. While there will be rainfall potential
over several days there will be breaks in the precipitation.

The potential for organized severe weather looks to be low at
best at this time. The potential for heavy rainfall will be have
to be monitored late this week into the weekend if repetitive
rounds of convection materialize.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm but will impacted by cloud
cover and precipitation.  A decreasing trend in precipitation
is expected early next week as the front pushes to the east and a
more zonal pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions are expected
through much of this TAF period from this morning through tonight.
High clouds will continue to spread across the area this morning
and may thin out some this afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will
occur late this morning into this afternoon. Some isolated showers
and storms will be possible late this morning into this afternoon,
but with limited coverage confidence in a TAF site being affected is
too low to add thunder to the TAFs at this time.

A storm system will approach from the west tonight, resulting in
mid level clouds increasing across the area. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kansas and Oklahoma
and may spread into the area later tonight into early Wednesday.
The better chances for this activity will mainly be at the KJLN
site remaining west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites through 12Z
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







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