Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 160831
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
331 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

The near term concern is fog/stratus trends. METSAT imagery shows
stratus hanging on over the vast majority of the area so far, but
where holes in the overcast have occurred, have seem some airports
at least briefly drop below a half mile visibility. Stratus build
down may also be a concern in higher elevation terrain in southern
MO. The best chances for dense fog in the near term look to be
where breaks occur or around the edge of the stratus field. Areas
over central MO (KAIZ/KVIH) look a bit drier in the low levels.
Will watch trends for a possible advisory.

We should see fog burn off with a decrease in clouds later this morning.
Warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon with height rises
ahead of a large cutoff low over the central Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

The only notable changes to the forecast look to be associated
with the onset of showers/tstms as a lead impulse rotates around
the approaching upper level. Guidance trends have been to slow
onset time with the upper low initially hanging back a bit. Only
have modest pops for the daytime hours Friday and even then only
for the western cwfa late in the day. With the slower onset, have
also adjusted temperatures upward.

Rain chances will increase in earnest Friday night into early
Saturday as the first of a couple shortwaves move through the
region. The first will pivot nne ahead of the main upper low. The
second on Sunday will be the upper low itself as it opens up while
phasing with an approaching system digging southeast into the
upper Midwest. Some guidance indicates some decent overall
rainfall amounts, and will need to watch trends. WPC guidance for
total rainfall is widespread 1-2 inches and if realized this may
lead to low area/low water crossing flooding in some of the usual
prone spots.

Drier but cooler air will work it`s way in for Monday/Tuesday as
a large upper level trough/closed low is expected to be centered
over/near the Great Lakes. Some small pops are in place for
Wednesday as the southern stream of the upper level pattern starts
to become active again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Primary forecast challenge over the next few hours will be fog
potential. Currently, stratus build down is underway. In
addition, in areas where skies cleared late this afternoon,
crossover temperatures are being approached, leading to fog
development. Stratus is attempting to fill back in across
portions of the area, as a result these two processes will
continue through the overnight hours. Will continue trend toward
fog during the overnight hours, with a slower onset at JLN. Fog
will lift and stratus will break up during the daylight hours of
Thursday morning. Winds will be light and out of the south
through the forecast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan




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