Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 242334

634 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover and resulting cool temperatures have limited instability
this afternoon. Meanwhile thunderstorms were developing well to
the west across central Kansas along a dry line in advance of a
shortwave trough. The result is a lower risk for severe weather or
any convection tonight across far southeastern Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks.

Maintained a limited risk for severe storms late tonight as
convection out west may make it into the area while weakening.
Additional convection may also attempt to develop overnight on the
nose of mid level dry slot but this is uncertain at this time.


Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect VFR to areas of MVFR ceilings tonight with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region late
tonight. Areas of MVFR ceilings will increase as the night
progresses and especially impacting the Branson terminal. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may impact area terminals late tonight
generally after 06z. Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface
along with low level wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. Scattered
showers and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the
terminal sites.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.