Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






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